The NFL passing game has noticeably declined in the 2024-25 season. While it seems sudden, this trend has been progressing for the past few years, despite the fact that it had been growing substantially for two decades prior. There are many theories for this like defenses evolving, quarterbacks differing playstyles, and the lack of quarterback experience in the NFL.
NFL teams are on pace for the lowest amount of passing yards since 2001. That was the year that Kurt Warner had the second most passing yards in a season with 4,830. Since then, that season ranks 28th in NFL history. This shows the steady growth of the passing game over time. Teams in the early days of the NFL threw the ball very little, and quarterbacks passing stats reflected that. The evolution of the passing game reached its peak in the 2015-16 season and has come crashing down in 2024, but why?
One reason people give for this is the lack of experienced quarterbacks. A lot of great veteran quarterbacks retired in recent years like Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Phillip Rivers. “I think that a lot of great quarterbacks retiring has hurt the league’s passing.”, said Harris Camp (10). When you look at the starting quarterbacks in 2024, none of the older ones appear to have the longevity that those ones did. Younger, inexperienced quarterbacks have been starting more games which could lead to a worse passing game.
Another possibility is the evolution of defenses. For a long time, many different rules were added that catered to the offensive side of the ball, but it seems that the defense may have finally caught up. The most prominent of their adjustments is the switch to using a lot of two high safety looks. This means that instead of traditionally having just one safety deep, there is two which prevents a lot of deep passing.
The last major theory for the decline of NFL passing is the differing playstyles of the modern quarterback. There are more dual-threat quarterbacks nowadays than there ever were. A dual-threat quarterback is defined as a quarterback that has incredible rushing ability along with their ability to throw the ball. However, these quarterbacks tend to sacrifice some passing for dynamic rushing plays. “Over the past couple years, I feel like the running game has taken over a lot.”, says Carter Dralle (10). Because of this, quarterback designed runs are on pace to be the highest ever.
The decline of the passing game ultimately means less offense across the league. Some like that shift and many others do not, but it is rooted in the surplus of quarterback inexperience, the evolution of defenses, and the new archetype of quarterback.
